Battle of the Network Hotties: Women's Division

Meegs82 wrote:

THX1138 wrote:

Meegs82 wrote:Olivia vs. Brennan is gonna be TORTURE for me, TORTURE I tell ya!!!!!!!

You're overthinking Meegs. You gotta look at this rationally - I'm assuming you're loyalty is divided 50/50, right? You actually know Emily, so the "Relative/Friend/Acquaintance" rule kicks in, breaks the tie and you vote for Em.

RM

Hmm...ya know, that actually makes some sense.

Of course it does, I are a genyus!

RM

THX1138 wrote:

Meegs82 wrote:

THX1138 wrote:

Meegs82 wrote:Olivia vs. Brennan is gonna be TORTURE for me, TORTURE I tell ya!!!!!!!

You're overthinking Meegs. You gotta look at this rationally - I'm assuming you're loyalty is divided 50/50, right? You actually know Emily, so the "Relative/Friend/Acquaintance" rule kicks in, breaks the tie and you vote for Em.

RM

Hmm...ya know, that actually makes some sense.

Of course it does, I are a genyus!

RM

Meegs! You just gave him that one free and clear! Girl!

Okay, Mr. Genyus, if you're so smart I want to hear you make the opposing argument! It's easy to argue in favor of the heart, but it takes some serious gray matter to take the other side.


asdf asdf asdf asdf adsf asdf (<< know what that is? Try it. You'll figure it out!)

DBCrazy wrote:

THX1138 wrote:

Meegs82 wrote:

THX1138 wrote:

Meegs82 wrote:Olivia vs. Brennan is gonna be TORTURE for me, TORTURE I tell ya!!!!!!!

You're overthinking Meegs. You gotta look at this rationally - I'm assuming you're loyalty is divided 50/50, right? You actually know Emily, so the "Relative/Friend/Acquaintance" rule kicks in, breaks the tie and you vote for Em.

RM

Hmm...ya know, that actually makes some sense.

Of course it does, I are a genyus!

RM

Meegs! You just gave him that one free and clear! Girl!

Okay, Mr. Genyus, if you're so smart I want to hear you make the opposing argument! It's easy to argue in favor of the heart, but it takes some serious gray matter to take the other side.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy - Faced with voting for Olivia vs Temperance when you're loyalty is evenly divide (50/50), consider the following: BONES is an older, more established show with a larger fan base and a more recognizable lead character in Temperance Brennan, so the odds of Fringe fans mustering the forces to defeat Emily/Brennan are somewhere between slim and none, and slim's lookin pretty pale. THUS when facing a choice that divides your loyalties you can cast your vote for Olivia knowing that your vote really won't count because Brennan is going to win anyway. Sure, it sounds bad but realize that folks do it all the time in presidential elections, we call them Libertarians.

asdf asdf asdf asdf adsf asdf (<< know what that is? Try it. You'll figure it out!)

You're drumming your fingers on the keyboard while you wait for an answer, duh.

I totally have faith in you, I just want to hear what you'll come up with!

I'm hoping I didn't disappoint - it was between the Libertarian "vote your conscious" argument and a BCS football ranking system argument and all y'all being women I thought the BCS football argument was weaker.

Ah, the ol' Libertarian argument! Good you didn't lead with the BCS football one because I don't even know what "BCS" means. But I don't know about your argument that it's really 'no contest'. I just took a look at the votes collected so far:

Olivia Dunham from Fringe 62% (1,790 votes)
Echo from Dollhouse 38% (1,094 votes)
Total Votes: 2,884

13 from House 13% (333 votes)
Dr. Temperance Brennan from Bones 87% (2,300 votes)
Total Votes: 2,633

Granted, Brennan has a good 500 votes over Olivia now, but when they go toe to toe I don't know what'll happen. Where will their allegiance lie then? I do know this though, I don't have a predicament in that race at all... Go Brennan!

I do have to say that the lack of votes that Angela is mustering in all this is sad. I know that House is a terribly popular show, but isn't Dr. Cameron kind of in the background nowadays (sorry, I don't watch it regularly)? I almost take Ange's low numbers to be a bit of a reflection on what they've done to her character of late.

...and as for the "asdf " ... I don't know if that's been done before, but when I thought of it I was rather proud of myself!

DBCrazy wrote:Ah, the ol' Libertarian argument! Good you didn't lead with the BCS football one because I don't even know what "BCS" means. But I don't know about your argument that it's really 'no contest'. I just took a look at the votes collected so far:

Olivia Dunham from Fringe 62% (1,790 votes)
Echo from Dollhouse 38% (1,094 votes)
Total Votes: 2,884

13 from House 13% (333 votes)
Dr. Temperance Brennan from Bones 87% (2,300 votes)
Total Votes: 2,633

Granted, Brennan has a good 500 votes over Olivia now, but when they go toe to toe I don't know what'll happen. Where will their allegiance lie then? I do know this though, I don't have a predicament in that race at all... Go Brennan!

I do have to say that the lack of votes that Angela is mustering in all this is sad. I know that House is a terribly popular show, but isn't Dr. Cameron kind of in the background nowadays (sorry, I don't watch it regularly)? I almost take Ange's low numbers to be a bit of a reflection on what they've done to her character of late.

...and as for the "asdf " ... I don't know if that's been done before, but when I thought of it I was rather proud of myself!

right now I am still voting for Olivia and Brennan, but in the next round I will only vote for her, so my 100 votes for Olivia will go to Brennan too......on top of the 100 votes I would have gotten in anyway......

DBCrazy wrote:Ah, the ol' Libertarian argument! Good you didn't lead with the BCS football one because I don't even know what "BCS" means.

See, know your audience - rule #1 for a persuasive pitch.

But I don't know about your argument that it's really 'no contest'. I just took a look at the votes collected so far:

Olivia Dunham from Fringe 62% (1,790 votes)
Echo from Dollhouse 38% (1,094 votes)
Total Votes: 2,884

13 from House 13% (333 votes)
Dr. Temperance Brennan from Bones 87% (2,300 votes)
Total Votes: 2,633

Granted, Brennan has a good 500 votes over Olivia now, but when they go toe to toe I don't know what'll happen. Where will their allegiance lie then? I do know this though, I don't have a predicament in that race at all... Go Brennan!

Well I surmise that the negatives are composed of two types of people, those that wouldn't vote for the winner because of a genuine preference for their opponent and those that wouldn't vote for the winner regardless. Looking at the last two rounds of voting lets assume that the section that won't vote for Brennan regardless runs about 15%, while Olivia's hover around 35% (their adjusted negatives for the last two rounds). All else being equal, and assuming 3000 people vote, Brennan starts with a 550 vote advantage (based on gross preference modeling), meaning Olivia must win 4 out of 5 remaining votes to beat her in a straight up match. Not impossible but outside a 3 sigma normative distribution, probably closer to a 6 sigma in actuality.

I do have to say that the lack of votes that Angela is mustering in all this is sad. I know that House is a terribly popular show, but isn't Dr. Cameron kind of in the background nowadays (sorry, I don't watch it regularly)? I almost take Ange's low numbers to be a bit of a reflection on what they've done to her character of late.

I'd agree with your assessment. I think Angie's journey into self centered bitchdom has hurt Michaela's chances here. Plus Cameron's a very sympathetic character who's departure from House makes her all the more attractive (distance has a way of improving vision when it comes to these things...).

...and as for the "asdf " ... I don't know if that's been done before, but when I thought of it I was rather proud of myself!

It was clever Sherry, you just keep forgetting, I are a genyus.


RM

Gross preference modeling assumes that the percentage of people that didn't vote for you before remains relatively constant for a given population, assuming the commodity is fungible and the choice is equally attractive. In this case for a given population of 3000 we can initially assume that 450 wouldn't vote for Temperance as a first choice, likewise 1050 for Olivia. The remaining population of 1500 is divided evenly between candidates, then the 1st 1500 is distributed base on voting propabilities. In other words each starts out with 750 votes in theory, it's getting to 1501 that's the ticket to winning, not actual results. Gross preference modeling isn't concerned with actual results, but ascertaining preferences through QAD interpretation of raw data.

ToZiKa wrote:

DBCrazy wrote:Ah, the ol' Libertarian argument! Good you didn't lead with the BCS football one because I don't even know what "BCS" means. But I don't know about your argument that it's really 'no contest'. I just took a look at the votes collected so far:

Olivia Dunham from Fringe 62% (1,790 votes)
Echo from Dollhouse 38% (1,094 votes)
Total Votes: 2,884

13 from House 13% (333 votes)
Dr. Temperance Brennan from Bones 87% (2,300 votes)
Total Votes: 2,633

Granted, Brennan has a good 500 votes over Olivia now, but when they go toe to toe I don't know what'll happen. Where will their allegiance lie then? I do know this though, I don't have a predicament in that race at all... Go Brennan!

I do have to say that the lack of votes that Angela is mustering in all this is sad. I know that House is a terribly popular show, but isn't Dr. Cameron kind of in the background nowadays (sorry, I don't watch it regularly)? I almost take Ange's low numbers to be a bit of a reflection on what they've done to her character of late.

...and as for the "asdf " ... I don't know if that's been done before, but when I thought of it I was rather proud of myself!

right now I am still voting for Olivia and Brennan, but in the next round I will only vote for her, so my 100 votes for Olivia will go to Brennan too......on top of the 100 votes I would have gotten in anyway......

And ToZ shows us why Gross Preference Modelling is only halfway accurate as a predictor in these things and even it will fail at times because you can't account for voter enthusiasm when mulitple votes are an option. And Brennan will still win.

RM

LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

DBCrazy wrote:LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

that's about as much as I got too
he lost me with the sigma-stuff

DBCrazy wrote:LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

Pffft! Read the fine print - I explained it all quite clearly, in perfectly crumpulent terms. It's not my fault I have a degree in maths and another in astrophysics...wait, is that me or someone else? Anyone? Beuller? Beuller? Anyone?

RM

Oh, yes, and Go Brennan!

ToZiKa wrote:

DBCrazy wrote:LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

that's about as much as I got too
he lost me with the sigma-stuff

Oh puh-leeeze! Simply everyone knows that sigma is the standard deviation of a statistical population or data set calculated by deriving the square root of the variance from the mean. It's used in probability calculations when predicting outcomes in normative distributions. Or in other words, think of each sigma as a rotation around the mean (it helps to think of a normative distribution as less of a bell curve and more of a bell - period). The most likely outcome is the center or top of the bell, and the probability of any other outcome being likely can be determined through degrees of variance from the mean, IE, the degree of sigma. An 8 out of 10 result for a diminishing population would be likely less than 1 time in 20 in my estimation, so it'd fall outside of a 3 sigma result. Each successive sigma has a smaller and smaller probability of occuring (as the bell's edges flaten out) so I'd estimate the probability lying somewhere out there past 5 sigma, or 4% (1-.96) based on Chebyshev's theorem of inequality where at least 96% of the values are within 5 standard deviations from the mean. Since this is an outlier it'd fall at or outside 5 sigma.

Really, didn't anyone pay attention in prob & stat?

RM

THX1138 wrote:

DBCrazy wrote:LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

Pffft! Read the fine print - I explained it all quite clearly, in perfectly crumpulent terms. It's not my fault I have a degree in maths and another in astrophysics...wait, is that me or someone else? Anyone? Beuller? Beuller? Anyone?

RM

Oh, yes, and Go Brennan!

NOOOO! Don't put that voice in my head.

Oh, it's too late. Do you know what you've done now? Now when I read your posts they're going to be narrated by Ben Stein, sneakers and all.





Okay, folks, we have to rally around Angela. She needs us. GO VOTE FOR ANGELA!!!!

[Only admins are allowed to see this link]
(sorry for the twitter link but I'm in the middle of a post here!)

On the plus side though, Ben, y'got any good financial advice for me?

Rob, if you're gonna talk all statistical like that I may as well just get back to work and listen to all these other engineers around here.

Bye, y'all.

And, oh yeah, Go Angela!!

[Only admins are allowed to see this link]

DBCrazy wrote:

THX1138 wrote:

DBCrazy wrote:LOL! I understood ToZ, but I do believe that Rob is delving into a bit of jibber-jabber there! I did get the last 5 words though...

RM wrote:And Brennan will still win.

Go Brennan!

Pffft! Read the fine print - I explained it all quite clearly, in perfectly crumpulent terms. It's not my fault I have a degree in maths and another in astrophysics...wait, is that me or someone else? Anyone? Beuller? Beuller? Anyone?

RM

Oh, yes, and Go Brennan!

NOOOO! Don't put that voice in my head.

Oh, it's too late. Do you know what you've done now? Now when I read your posts they're going to be narrated by Ben Stein, sneakers and all.

BWAHAHAHAHAHA! I can't tell you how much that made my day! I actually started cackling here at work, and on the day I'm actually IN the office - everyone was stearing at me, too freakin' funny. You might as well enjoy this now:

Okay, folks, we have to rally around Angela. She needs us. GO VOTE FOR ANGELA!!!!

[Only admins are allowed to see this link]
(sorry for the twitter link but I'm in the middle of a post here!)

On the plus side though, Ben, y'got any good financial advice for me?

Going long on tech stocks is always a good option, but you need to hedge so I've got about 50% of my portfolio in blue chips and utilities - utes give you steady return and growth while BCs are notoriously resistant to downturns, recover faster, and give good dividends. I split the remainder between tech stocks and bonds.

RM

Your link led to the men's round--where I will have the same problem as in the woman's...Bones vs Fringe!
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And Angela's at 42%.